The paradox of pandemic mitigation? Moderating role of pandemic severity on the impact of social distancing policies: a cultural value perspective

(2024) 20:13 Ma et al. Globalization and Health https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-024-01018-y Globalization and Health Open Access RESEARCH The paradox of pandemic mitigation? Moderating role of pandemic severity on the impact of social distancing policies: a cultural value perspective Xingyang Ma1, Bing Chen1 and Yufang Zhao1* Abstract Background Social distancing policies were of utmost importance during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. These policies aimed to mitigate the severity of local outbreaks by altering public behavior. However, if the severity of the pandemic reduces, the impact of these policies on actual behavior may decrease. This study aims to examine, from a global perspective, whether the impact of social distancing policies on actual mobility is moderated by local pandemic severity and whether this moderating effect varies across cultural value contexts. Methods We combined multiple publicly available global datasets for structural equation model analysis. 17,513 rows of data from 57 countries included in all databases were analyzed. Multilevel moderated moderation models were constructed to test the hypotheses. Results More stringent policies in a region mean less regional mobility (β = -0.572, p < 0.001). However, the severity of local outbreaks negatively moderated this effect (β = -0.114, p < 0.001). When the pandemic was not severe, the influence of policy intensity on mobility weakened. Furthermore, based on Schwartz’s cultural values theory, cultural values of autonomy (β = -0.109, p = 0.011), and egalitarianism (β = -0.108, p = 0.019) reinforced the moderating effect of pandemic severity. On the other hand, cultural values of embeddedness (β = 0.119, p = 0.006) and hierarchy (β = 0.096, p = 0.029) attenuated the moderating effect. Conclusions Social distancing policies aim to reduce the severity of local pandemics; however, the findings reveal that mitigating local pandemics may reduce their impact. Future policymakers should be alert to this phenomenon and introduce appropriate incentives to respond. The results also show that the moderating role of pandemic severity varies across cultures. When policies are promoted to deal with global crises, policymakers must seriously consider the resistance and potential incentives of cultural values. Keywords Social distancing policy, Mobility, Pandemic severity, Cultural values *Correspondence: Yufang Zhao 1 Faculty of Psychology, Southwest University, No.2 Tiansheng Road, Chongqing, Beibei, China Background As the risk to human health from COVID-19 continues to decrease, on 5 May 2023, WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) [1]. However, looking back at the early stages of the pandemic, we were faced with the virus without sufficient knowledge and © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. Ma et al. Globalization and Health (2024) 20:13 medical interventions. At that time, social distancing policies significantly curbed the spread of the virus [2], preventing the overwhelming healthcare systems, and buying time for scientific research and vaccine development [3]. To prepare against future outbreaks, it’s crucial to learn from the current pandemic and improve our comprehension of public social distancing behavior for policy optimization. Social distancing policies aim to curtail mobility, ultimately reducing the pandemic severity. However, a paradoxical challenge may arise as the pandemic mitigates: with reduced benefits for policy compliance, the public may spontaneously resume activities, thereby weakening the impact of such policies on mobility. This study examined whether pandemic severity moderated the impact of policy on actual mobility from a global perspective. Furthermore, the global implementation of social distancing policies is deeply influenced by cultural values [4, 5]. Cultural values can alter the benefits of policy compliance. As the severity of the pandemic lessens, they can either motivate people to persist in adhering to policies or exacerbate spontaneous rebound of mobility. This study also explored whether the moderating effect of pandemic severity varies across cultural contexts. Page 2 of 14 The moderating role of pandemic severity The mitigation of the pandemic severity may reduce the benefits of compliance. Previous studies have found that as pandemic severity decreases, public perception of infection risk declines [13, 14], resulting in reduced support for social distancing policies [15] and a decrease in policy-induced behaviors [16]. Viewing these phenomena through the lens of rational choice theory, pandemic severity mitigation devalues the benefits of policy compliance [17], consequently leading to shifts in attitudes and behaviors towards these policies. As the depreciation of policy-induced behaviors accumulates at the population level, the impact of social distancing policies on mobility is likely to decrease. In this study, we assumed that, although more stringent policies predicted less mobility, this association might be moderated by local pandemic severity. Rational choice theory also suggests that culture shapes preferences and inclinations, thereby influencing how individuals trade-off the benefits and costs of decisions [18–20]. The impact of declining compliance benefits owing to mitigation of pandemic severity may be buffered in some cultural contexts, while becoming more pronounced in others. Social distancing policy and mobility Moderating effect of pandemic severity under different cultural values Social distancing policies, including school closures, limits placed on large public spaces, and bans on inrestaurant dining were implemented globally during the COVID-19 pandemic [2]. A critical aspect of these policies is that they primarily rely on public compliance [6]. Ideally, as policies became more stringent, more places were restricted, thus, less regi (...truncated)