The carbon perception gap in actual and ideal carbon footprints across wealth groups

Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61505-7 The carbon perception gap in actual and ideal carbon footprints across wealth groups Received: 21 October 2024 Accepted: 23 June 2025 1234567890():,; 1234567890():,; Check for updates Johanna Köchling 1,2,6 , Julia E. Koller 1,6, Jana Straßheim 1,2, Yannic Rehm3, Lucas Chancel 3,4, Claudia Diehl 5, Harald T. Schupp 1,2 & Britta Renner 1,2 Carbon inequality is gaining attention in public discussions surrounding equitable climate policies. It commonly refers to the unequal distribution of individual greenhouse gas emissions, with wealthier individuals contributing disproportionately higher emissions. Little is known about how people perceive the actual carbon footprint distribution across wealth groups and what they would desire as an ideal distribution. Survey data from Germany show awareness of carbon inequality, with respondents recognizing that wealthier individuals emit disproportionately more. Yet, with surprising consensus, all groups, including the wealthy, desired an inverse ideal distribution, with the wealthy having disproportionately smaller carbon footprints. Nonetheless, most perceived their own carbon footprint as far better compared to others in society and within their wealth group. Here, we show a carbon perception gap, particularly among the wealthiest: Collectively, people acknowledge the presence of carbon inequality and desire a more equitable distribution, yet often perceive themselves as already contributing more than others. In the wake of the climate crisis, humanity faces an increasingly urgent need to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Yet, not all humans contribute equally to the climate crisis. Estimates suggest that the wealthiest 10% of the global population contribute approximately 45–49% of global GHG emissions, while the bottom 50% contribute only 7–13%1–4 (for income based estimates, see also Starr et al.5). In Germany, which is characterized by one of the highest levels of wealth inequality in the Eurozone6, the wealthiest 20% of the population are responsible for 25–52% of the country’s GHG emissions depending on the accounting framework, whereas the poorest 20% emit only 8–16%7 (see “Methods” section for detailed methodology). This disparity is particularly significant as Germany remains the EU’s top GHG emitter, producing 750 million metric tons of GHG emissions in 2022, despite its ambitious climate targets to decrease GHG emissions by at least 65% until 20308,9. This combination of wealth disparity, high GHG emissions, and ambitious goals poses substantial challenges for equitable climate action, particularly given Germany’s influential role as a key economic and political player in the EU. However, achieving more equitable contributions remains a challenge faced by many countries and regions. Carbon inequality is at the center of debates and disagreements about equitable climate policies because it raises the question of who should contribute to climate change mitigation and to what extent. How much GHG emissions should groups in society with greater financial resources (“wealthier groups”) be entitled to emit compared to those with fewer resources (“poorer groups”)? Determining the ideal societal distribution of carbon footprints is complex and a source of friction between stakeholders. Although people generally view equality as an important principle in the abstract10–12, research on the ideal distributions of wealth13,14 and health15 has shown that people are willing to accept inequalities to a certain extent. Thus, people may not necessarily want everyone to contribute equally, as some levels of inequality in carbon footprints might even be considered desirable. For example, people may find 1 Department of Psychology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany. 2Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany. 3Paris School of Economics, Paris, France. 4Center for Research on Social Inequalities, Sciences Po, Paris, France. 5Department of Sociology, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany. 6These authors contributed equally: Johanna Köchling, Julia E. Koller. e-mail: Nature Communications | (2025)16:6180 1 Article some form of carbon inequality acceptable because they believe that wealthier groups contribute more to economic growth and are therefore entitled to consume and emit more. Conversely, it could be argued that wealthier groups have more resources and opportunities to reduce their GHG emissions and should therefore emit even less than poorer groups16. However, the desired distribution of carbon footprints across different wealth groups in society remains unknown. Beyond the ideal distribution of carbon footprints across wealthier and poorer groups in society, the perception of current inequalities is considered an essential driver of support for structural and redistributive policies10,17,18, potentially even more so than the actual level of inequality19–21. For example, informing individuals about the objective distribution of household GHG emissions across different income groups, as well as their own position within the income distribution, increased support for carbon taxation, particularly among less affluent groups22. There is emerging evidence of an underestimation of carbon inequality23,24. When asked who causes more environmental harm (including pollution and global warming), less than 50% of Brazilian respondents identified the rich or higher income groups as causing more environmental harm23. Furthermore, comparing carbon footprint estimates for three income groups (bottom 50%, top 10%, top 1%) from online samples in Denmark, India, Nigeria, and the USA revealed that participants attributed higher emissions to the top income groups but generally underestimated the gap between the top 1% and bottom 50%24. However, perceptions of the carbon footprint distribution across all wealth groups, including the poor, remain unclear. Additionally, discrepancies between ideal and actual carbon footprint distributions provide insights into whether individuals are satisfied with the status quo or see a need for change. Finally, to understand perceptions of carbon inequality, it is crucial to consider how people perceive their own carbon footprint. Although wealthier individuals typically have larger carbon footprints, they spend a smaller proportion of their income on GHG-intensive goods compared to less affluent individuals25. Additionally, individuals may view their own GHG emissions more favorably than those of others, which could be particularly pronounced among the wealthy who tend to have higher GHG emissions. However, it remains to be studied whether individuals account for wealth when evaluating their own and others’ carbon footprints. Our study’s objectives are therefore threefold: (1) we investigate perceptions of ideal and actual carbon footprint distributions across five wealth groups (i.e., quintiles (...truncated)