Distributional effects of marine conservation on coastal livelihoods in Eastern Indonesia

Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69081-0 Distributional effects of marine conservation on coastal livelihoods in Eastern Indonesia Received: 9 January 2024 Accepted: 23 January 2026 Duong Trung Le 1,2,3 , Gabby N. Ahmadia4, Indah Anggriyani Ratih5, Kelly Claborn4,6, Estradivari7, Muhammad Erdi Lazuardi8, Dariani Matualage Phillip. M. Mohebalian4, Hellen Nanlohy9, Ni Kadek Sri Pusparini10, Ranaivo Rasolofoson 2,11, Kezia E. Salosso5, Natelda R. Timisela9, Fitryanti Pakiding 5,12, Louise Glew4,12, Michael B. Mascia 2,12 & David Gill 5 , 2,12 Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely adopted to conserve marine biodiversity, yet their distributional impacts on resource-dependent communities remain underexplored. This study investigates socioeconomic inequality linked to MPAs in eastern Indonesia using a quasi-experimental design and multi-round household surveys of over 10,000 households across 180 coastal settlements in 10 MPAs (2010–2017). We assess poverty through objective (asset-based index) and subjective (perceived economic trends) measures. Findings reveal overall poverty reduction and persistent pre-existing inequalities by gender, age, occupation, and tenure rights. MPAs did not cause short-term economic losses or widen objective inequality but constrained perceived economic improvement, particularly among female-headed households. Community engagement moderated these effects: gender disparities were greater where female participation in groups was low. These findings suggest that promoting inclusive participation can help ensure more equitable conservation outcomes. 1234567890():,; 1234567890():,; Check for updates Among the major environmental conservation initiatives, protected areas (PAs) are increasingly being implemented by governments and other institutions to meet the dual goals of alleviating ecosystem degradation and sustaining human well-being1–3. The prevalence of PAs and ambitious calls to rapidly increase PA coverage to 30–50 percent of the land and ocean3, highlights the urgent need to understand and measure PA impacts across both ecological and social outcomes. Relative to the more prominent social science research measuring impacts of terrestrial PAs4–6, the current understanding of how marine conservation interventions affect human well-being is limited7–9, despite rapid growth in both the size and number of these initiatives in the last few decades10. The lack of scientifically rigorous evidence on the diversity of social impacts of PAs on coastal communities is a pressing knowledge gap that could hinder progress towards more effective and equitable conservation and sustainable development11,12. Within the literature on marine protected areas (MPAs), there have been calls for greater evidence on how the magnitude of marine conservation impacts varies among social groups, in order to better inform equitable policy development11,13. The existing literature on this topic is predominantly descriptive, with limited quantitative studies often constrained by isolated and small study samples, unidimensional outcome measures, and the lack rigorous impact-evaluation study designs7,8,14. While studies have acknowledged social benefits of marine conservation on 1 The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA. 2Duke University, Beaufort, NC, USA. 3Fulbright University Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. 4World Wildlife FundU.S., Washington, DC, USA. 5Universitas Papua, Manokwari, Papua Barat, Indonesia. 6Arizona State University, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Tempe, AZ, USA. 7Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Research, Bremen, Germany. 8World Wildlife Fund-Indonesia, Bali, Indonesia. 9Universitas Pattimura, Ambon, Indonesia. 10Wildlife Conservation Society, Bogor, Jawa Barat, Indonesia. 11School of the Environment, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. 12 These authors jointly supervised this work: Fitryanti Pakiding, Louise Glew, Michael B. Mascia, David Gill. e-mail: Nature Communications | (2026)17:4690 1 Article average7, a growing concern is that such benefits are often unevenly distributed across the population, resulting in or exacerbating preexisting inequalities15–17, conflict, or other social harm18,19. Such unequal outcomes can also lead to resentment amongst affected groups and increase non-compliance with MPA regulations20. Thus, a lack of understanding of the differential impacts of conservation can jeopardize both social and ecological goals21,22. Critically assessing the distribution of impacts across social groups can help policymakers identify and account for the most marginalized and vulnerable groups, thereby tailoring adequate support to mitigate social inequity23,24. This study examines the socioeconomic inequality linked to MPA establishment in eastern Indonesia. This work contributes to the nascent understanding of the differential social impacts of MPAs by employing a quasi-experimental study design to assess the impacts of a network of MPAs on inequality in coastal communities in Eastern Indonesia. We provide a quantitative assessment of the distributional effects of MPAs on socioeconomic outcomes across social groups through the lens of poverty—a crucial aspect particularly relevant to coastal poor communities in developing countries25–27. We use a primary household survey dataset of over 10,000 households to develop metrics of both objective and subjective dimensions of economic wellbeing. Our work advances the current literature studying the social impacts of PAs in several ways. First, while the understanding of aggregate impacts is important for policymakers in designing netbeneficial conservation interventions, our analysis assesses the heterogeneity in impacts among different social subgroups, thereby providing critical insights on equality of conservation impacts. Second, our study employs an unprecedented and potentially one of the largest monitoring datasets capturing social and ecological conditions before and after the implementation of 10 MPAs in Eastern Indonesia, encompassing over 10,000 household surveys within 180 characteristically similar treated (MPA) and control (non-MPA) coastal settlements between 2010 and 2017. Third, relying on this quasiexperimental survey design, we employ a robust impact-evaluation method to provide causally inferred evidence on how MPAs differentially affect the economic well-being of different societal groups. The empirical approach enables us to disentangle changes in household economic well-being induced by MPA intervention from the broader economic trends observed in the seascapes and other potential rival explanations. Fourth, our study takes place in a region containing the world’s greatest diversity of corals and reef fishes, as well as a strong sustainable development priority due to high poverty rates and resource dependency of the local community28. It is therefore an ideal location to assess how conservation can contribute to equitable develo (...truncated)